A Few More Quick Thoughts on Gun Control

The gun control debate keeps rolling around in the public consciousness even as the news is dominated by the Fiscal Cliff -- Though it seems we are going to go over that cliff with regards to the spending cuts, but some of us might be saved from tax hikes;  As a beneficiary of the US Defense Budget, I am still worried.  

I know that in my post on the Newton Tragedy I said I was open to arming teachers.  Not so much any more.  A friend of mine pointed out it is possible for one of those teachers to snap and go on a rampage of their own.  The NRA may actually have a good idea with the police officer on station -- I would hope that gun buyers would be willing to pay an extra gun/ammo sales tax to fund the placement of an officer  in every one of our 98,000 or so public schools.  But, as your typical NRA member has something of a tax allergy, I doubt they'd be too happy about that.

In my opinion allowing teachers to carry guns on campus adds an extra layer of unnecessary risk.  What I am going to do next may shock some of you, and I apologize if you feel that applying some numbers to these kinds of horrific events is immoral, but I feel it proves my point.  If you can suspend your moral outrage for a moment and stick with me, I would appreciate it.    

In probability theory, the probability that Event A AND Event B will happen is given by the following formula:

Probability of Event A AND Event B Occurring = P(EventA) * P(EventB)

So what is the probability of a school shooting occurring at your school (or your son's school, or your daughter's school)?  I think the answer is given by asking the question "what is the probability that a school shooting will happen today AND what is the probability that will happen at my school?"

Based on Wikipedia (not the most authoritative source but good enough for this) there were 6 school shootings in 2012.  So the probability that a school shooting will happen today, based on the previous rate, is 6/365 = 1.64%.  

The probability that shooting will happen at my school?  The National Center for Educations Statics says that in 2009 - 2010 there were about 98,800 public schools in the united states.  There are an additional 33,360 private schools, for a total of  132160 schools.  The probability that the school shooting, when it happens, will be at your school is 1/132160 = 0.001%

So based on the formula given above, the probability that a school shooting will happen today and that it will happen at your school is a mere:

P(EventA) * P(EventB) = 0.00164*0.00001 = 0.0000001 = 0.00001%

Which is very small.  

Now, the by the same logic, we could calculate the probability that a teacher will go berserk and go on a similar rampage.  It too will be very small.  But when you introduce a mass of armed teachers on the scene you only add to the risk.  The question now is "Will a school shooting happen today AND will it happen at my school OR will a teacher go on a rampage AND will it happen at my school".  This is expressed in probabilities as:

Probability of Event A AND Event B Occurring OR Event C AND Event D Occurring = P(EventA) * P(EventB) + P(EventC) * P(EventD)

Clearly, all we have done is add to the risks we currently have.  

I will say that the risk is so small that it probably doesn't matter what we do.  For all the measures we could take, your children (my child) are already very safe in their classrooms (at least from something like this happening), and anything we could do is only going to make them marginally safer.  

But of course we should do something.  For all the math I just threw at you, even I recognize that the death of one of those innocent children is one too many.  

So if it really doesn't matter what we do, why NOT arm the teachers?  Because in addition to just adding to one of the (sadly) inherent risks of everyday life, I also believe with every fiber of my being that we should not live in a society where we feel the only way to keep our children safe is to always have someone around them who is packing heat.  I do not think we should live in a society where if I want to I can buy, with relative ease, a weapon more suitable for war than for anything else.  

I support anyone's second amendment right to arm themselves with a pistol, a shotgun, a rifle for hunting or sport or defense.  But an AR-15?  No one needs an AR-15.  If it takes you 45 rounds to kill a deer, well then you're not much of a hunter.  There are those who buy high powered weaponry just for the joy of having them and shooting them - I would argue that it might also be fun to ride a tank down route 17, but that doesn't entitle me to buy one.

If you want an AR-15 that badly, though,  I might be willing to let you have one.  But I am going to subject you to the mightiest background check, make you file all sorts of papers, take all kinds of gun certification classes, and I am going to additionally tax the shit out of it so that I can put an armed police officer in every school.  You want one?  You're going to have to earn it.    

We seriously need to rethink our attitude to the second amendment and our relationship to weaponry.  As I have said before, the second amendment was written in a very different time - I'll bet that one man armed with a Bushmaster rifle and a couple boxes of ammo could probably hold off an entire company or more of His Royal Majesty's 10th Regiment of Foot (at least of the 1776 vintage).  Two men certainly could.  

More fundamentally though, we need to think about the kind of society we are living in.  Why does this keep happening?  What could we be doing better in terms of mental health?  Why is our society so poisoned by violence?  Do we need to, collectively as a society, turn back to God?  Is that even possible to do?

Phew.  Lots of questions.  Few good answers.