Sunday, June 23, 2019

We're going to War! Wait, no we're not! Wait, yes we are! Wait, no we're...

On this week's episode of "The Celebrity Apprentice:  Washington", Mr. Trump ordered missile and air strikes on Iran, but then after commercial break decided to call it off at the last minute.

Plenty of people have had lots to say about it.  There is a general sigh of relief that we don't find ourselves at war with Iran (yet);  there are questions about what really motivated the President's decisions; there are questions about why Trump didn't know from the get go if maybe 150 people would be killed; there is worry about who is driving the foreign policy bus.  There is also the intriguing idea, floated by some (including General Petreus), that it is what Trump had intended to do all along, a sort of mock execution where at the last minute the gun is pulled back and Trump yells out "never, ever, EVER, come into my casino again!  You got that?  NEVER!"  Which would send a message that we could reach out to Iran anytime we want to and that they are on a very short leash.

Trump may have made the right decision in this case:  a strike on Iran, which would have almost certainly caused casualties, is not a good response to losing a drone in disputed air space.

The problem of course it is a decision he shouldn't have had to make at all.  Here we see the consequences of withdrawing from the nuclear deal, which has to be the worst foreign policy decision the administration has made.

The best we can hope for is that Iran buckles under the pressure and sits down to make a new agreement.  But in my opinion its hard to see that happening and I wondering if we will get anything really better than what Obama was able to achieve after years of diplomacy conducted by professionals who hadn't professed a desire to change the regime (at least openly--- Hillary Clinton's monthly kaffeeklatches don't count!  What happens at kaffeeklatch, stays at kaffeeklatch) .  Trump will be lucky to get the previous terms.

Of course, if he does, he will declare victory by solving a crisis of his own making.