Come with me as I grope back into my memories of freshman year in college, where between studying for exams and doing homework I managed to cram in the time to read Tolstoy's epic War and Peace. Now, in retrospect, that time might have been better spent chasing girls and searching for beer, but I wasn't about that back then and I don't regret reading the book, which I consider the best book I have ever read.
Anyways, I remember that it is not only about Napoleon's invasion of Russia, but it also contains some philosphy on what history is. The history of a battle, for Tolstoy, is not about commanders making decisions, but rather an event that is not as controllable as we'd like to think. In a series of random events, it is the spirit of the men, often such an intangible, that matters.
He may not have said that. But I think he did. If he did not, forgive me. It has been a long time since I have read War and Peace. I think I might read it again, even though I am strangely at a time in my life where I may be better served once again by chasing women and searching for beer (now much easier to come by). Though maybe not.
Anyways, the point is that intangibles matter. And that, my friend, is how I like to do my crackpot sports analysis. Often, when I consider a game or a match between two teams, my factors of thought are the overall qualitiy of the teams, their recent run of form, and the intangibles.
It is rare that an individual really enters into my thinking. Wellington used to say that Napoleon's prescense was worth 40,000 men on the battlefied. There are some players like that in team sports. Michael Jordan was one. Peyton Manning certainly is or was one, if the Colts recent games are any testament. The Hokies all know that Andrew Luck is probably one of those guys, from bitter experience. In the world of soccer the analogy breaks down a bit, I think, but Lionel Messi is certainly a little Napoleon. A good goalkeeper can make a big, big difference, but its not quite the same....if a defense breaks down the in the right way the best goalkeeper in the world cannot save you. You just have to pray that the striker will miss. If that striker is Fernando Torres, the chances are pretty good...though even that may be changing.
Anyway, today's football game. No Napoleons will take the field today when the Hokies play against Clemson. I don't think Clemon's Tajh Boyd is one of those of guys who can win a game for you; Logan Thomas probably doesn't have the experience yet to be that guy, though I don't know enough about him to really comment on his future prospects.
Recent run of form is no help either in picking a winner in this case, though in general it is not as much help in football as it is in soccer. In soccer the best teams often hit a rough patch a couple times through a long season where they will find it hard to win for 5 games or so, and its something to be considered. That doesn't work quite so well in football, where a good team will lose a game and come back even stronger next week, becuase they have something to prove.
In a game were Clemson and Tech are both 4-0, recent run of form is no help at all. Clemson has arguably faced better opponents, but Auburn is not the Auburn of last year (they are missing Cam Newton, obviously a Napoleonic figure, at least in college football) . The win against Florida State was a quality win that should not be discounted. The Hokies have not looked particularly impressive against a slate of weak opponents, but aside from the game against ECU they have won comfortably if not overwhelmingly. I actually give Tech a lot of credit for surviving at ECU. It was the first road game for a young team, and beating ECU has not been easy for Tech in recent times.
So it comes down to the intangibles. Those intangibles favor the Hokies. Clemson has not played away from home yet this year...all 4 games have been in Death Valley, which is a very hard place to play. Clemson must now go into their own Death Valley, Lane Stadium, the Hokie's House. The 6:00 pm kickoff means that the fans will be well liqoured and in full voice as the sun starts to set. Most of the game will be played under the lights, which will only feed into the atmosphere. Provided Clemson doesn't take the fans out of the game by scoring a lot at the outset, they will find it tough going.
So, the final analysis: I think, as the line suggests, it will be a very close, very excitiing encounter. But I think the intangibles will carry the Hokies, 24-14. A strong defense, and an electric atmosphere, carry the day.
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