Following a person's campaign for president, day by day, everyday, is boring. Very, very, very dull. So I gave up on it for a month or two. But (and I am a little ashamed to admit this) the recent assholery of one Donald Trump has piqued my interest in the race once more, and so for the last two weeks I have been trying to catch up on Ted Cruz and his Magical Mystery Tour that will very likely only lead to one place: him dropping out of the race, surrounded by friends, family, and supporters, in one final bland conference center.
So, the stats:
Ted Cruz has been on the trail (as of yesterday, 8/1/2015) 132 days, during which he has actually been on the road 71 days. He has traveled a whopping 44,000 miles. And to his credit he has only consumed approximately 24 lbs of chicken directly related to his campaign.
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| Ted Cruz is probably the only candidate in the field to have a tattoo of Winston Churchill on his arm; Though I hear that Hillary Clinton has one of Mahatma Gandhi on her left breast. |
He tends to favor Iowa, visited 11 times, followed closely by South Carolina at 9 visits. He's also been to Georgia, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and even California once. The only time he's seen fit to grace Virginia with his presence at an actual campaign event was his big kick-off in Lynchburg, and the Commonwealth thanks him for that. He's been up to New York City 8 times for big media days. Though he is running for president of the entire country he has only visited 14 states in the Union and that includes the non-state of DC. But we shouldn't hold that against him - Obama has been the president for the past 8 years and only just managed to visit all 50 states at least once during his tenure this past spring.
Mr. Cruz had his first major gaffe while we were away, making a joke about Joe Biden shortly after his son died - it was a part of his normal stump speech and I guess he just sort of didn't think about it. He apologized immediately. After that he lied low for a bit, tweeting about re-igniting the promise of America and getting a rash of editorials about the Iran Deal in the papers.
But then? Ahh....then in July the book comes out.
The book! The obligatory campaign book! Full of campaign stuff about awesome America is and how it takes a man of consummate awesomeness to lead it to the awesome future it deserves. He timed the release of the book to coincide with the 4th of July and hit the road, plugging his book on the morning talk shows and then signing books in Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, Iowa, and probably where ever else he gets to go. Best of all, Mr. Cruz got to pick a fight with the New York Times when they refused to let him get on the best-seller list even though his book sold 12,000 copies and probably should have been. The NYT believed that Cruz and his team had made strategic bulk purchases and that the 12,000 sales mark wasn't "real". Amazon and Harper Collins both came to Cruz's aid, saying they saw no evidence of such behavior, but the Gray Lady has not budged and Cruz got a little boost to his campaign numbers. In all fairness to the man, the book is actually supposed to be a good read - far better than your average campaign swill. I haven't read it, but Time magazine noted that Cruz is a fluid writer and communicator.
For all that? Based on a RealClearPolitics.com compilation of polls on the Republican hopefulls Cruz sits in the middle of the pack, with poll numbers hovering around 5%. His highest poll numbers, around 10%, came when he made his initial announcement and was the only man in the race - now there are 17 people vying for the nomination. That "jump" in the polls for fighting the New York Times only took him from 4 to 5 percent. Recently he has lost ground in the standings, as Huckabee gains numbers for making his outrageous comments on the Iran Deal that very bluntly reference the Holocaust. I've got to hand it to Cruz: I think his ideas are bad ones, but he has run a very principled campaign, trying to use his battles in the Senate over the Iran Deal and de-funding Planned Parenthood to give his campaign some policy oomph that the others perhaps lack. But as Trump's latest poll numbers show, pandering to the electorate does not mean taking principled stances on policy; being an ass plays far better.
Clearly the big hope is that Cruz makes it to the first debate on August 6th, hosted by Fox News. Only the top 10 in the polls will make it, though those being left out will get to participate in a lesser "NIT" debate airing earlier. Currently Cruz sits 8th and his poll numbers (roughly 5%) remain stubborn.
The strategy must follow from there, and it's likely based on getting more numbers as people drop out. Maybe some of the 1%'ers leave the race, and maybe Cruz can gather some of those people in his flock. Maybe when Trump finally collapses (though as he hasn't yet its hard to imagine what will finally bring about his downfall) some of those numbers will go to Cruz...Cruz has been less vitriolic in his denouncements of "The Donald" then the other candidates have been, and maybe he is hoping that he is seen as The Thinking Man's Trump, a more viable alternative who is kind of like Trump but actually not a total dick and therefore more likely to make it to Washington, a city known for high levels of dick tolerance that must still draw the line somewhere.
Well, that's all for now. Ted Cruz is likely hunkered down in Texas getting ready for the debate. He's got a big post debate campaign push lined up in several locations, culminating in a Rally to Restore Religious Freedom in Iowa (where else?). The field is set, the debates are ready to begin, and maybe things are finally going to get interesting.
There will be a whole lot more conference room chicken eaten before this thing is over.
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