Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Thoughts on the Denver Presidential Debate, Liveish

Well, it's finally here!  The shootout at the...place in Denver where they having the debates.  This one may be for all the marbles folks;  the undecideds in the electorate are dwindling, early voting has begun, and Mitt Romney has a lot of work to do to try to restart his campaign for the 23rd time and try to change the dynamic of this race.

Expectations have been downplayed by both contenders in a classic game of one-downsmanship, but don't be fooled.  Obama has been hitting the books and working on his fade away jumper, whilst Mitt Romney has been practicing some zingers and chasing chickens around the back alleys of Philadelphia to try to improve his speed.  He must also remember the five d's of debate:  dodge, duck, dip, dive, and dodge (the questions).

Okay, enough setup.  The two champions are in the tunnel, the crowds are holding up their scarves and singing, and at the end of 90 minutes only one man can be victorious.

50 million people are watching....what are the other 250 million of us doing?  Probably having fun.

00:00  We are introduced to the referee of the debate, Jim Lehrer.  There is a hand shake between  Ann and uh....shoot, what is her name?  Rats.  Domestic issues are the topic of the day, and Mr. Lehrer holds all the cards.  And he's told everyone to shut up and stop singing.

00:00 And the two men take the stage and there is a warm handshake between the two.  Lots of speculation on whether they would shake hands or not, but there you go.

1:00 Obama wins the toss and the first question is on jobs.  20th anniversary for the Obamas.  Obama, not surprisingly, is wearing a blue tie.

3:00 Romney, of course, is wearing a red tie.  And a funny joke about the 20th anniversary of Barack Obama that makes the crowd chuckle, which is nice.

4:00 And Romney busts out a 5 point plan!  But I can't remember any of the points.  But he does say we are going to do more for small business, and that he knows how to do that, but I again believe that just being a business leader doesn't mean you are going to govern well.

6:00  Obama counters with investments in education and training, all of which is good, and goes into to sort of a plan of his own.  Don't know if I think the race to the top is so good.  Obama promises to lower the capital gains tax.  Surprised that Romney wants to add $2 trillion of additional military spending.

8:00 Romney is trying to appeal to the middle class.  I really wonder how much of the economy the president really has any control over.   Nice dodge by Romney to avoid having to actually confront Obama with a question as Lehrer would have done.  These are merely talking points.  Merely talking points.

10:00 I find it interesting that Romney's idea of fairness is that if the middle class gets tax cuts he can't increase the burden on the upper classes.

13:00 Jim Lehrer is losing control of the debate.  I know he wants to go down a certain role.  But Romney and Obama are not letting him to do it.  They are just going through their well rehearsed talking points.  Lots of discussion about studies and studies and studies.  Romney does make a decent point about the individual tax rate, though Obama says he is doing or is going to do the same thing.

17:00  You know, I find it sad that I have a difficult time believing anything that either of these guys are saying.

20:00  It seems as well that Romney is talking to the president, not to the American people.  Obama though, seems to be communicating a little more effectively.  Does that mean anything?  I don't know.  But I think that Romney's having a difficult time getting across again, which seems to be his problem.

21:00  Ho boy.   Romney is arguing with the Ref.  Not very classy at all.  But he is on the attack.  He has the momentum.  As we go into the second segment, Obama has maybe to get it back.

23:00 Okay, the defecit.  I think Romney's argument is pretty poor.  Obama is hoping the economy gets going again, through spending.  It's kenysian.  Does it work?  I don't know.  But I still think Romney is mis-representing the truth.  As Obama starts his rebuttal I have to agree with him.  As long as the deficit is being amassed to fight wars its okay, but as soon as we start spending to try to get the economy going again its a bad thing.  I think that Obama has a good defecit reduction plan, mixing revenue increases with spending cuts...though I worry he is going to cut crackerjack subsidies.

28:00 Obama is also flouting the rules of the debate.  But he's doing it more gracefully.

30:00 Romney's prayer cutting taxes and hoping that helps business which will generate more revenue, I just don't agree with it.

31:00 Obama is taking on the oil industry here.  He makes a good point, I think, on the tax breaks for oil companies.

34:00 Obama is making a very compelling argument here for why a balanced defecit reduction plan, I think.  But if what Romney is saying about green energy is also an excellent point.  It will be interesting to see if Romney's claim on the tax breaks for offshoring is true.  Romney may have been in business for 25 years, but to my recollection he hasn't been in business for a good number of years here.  And how much has the business world changed in the last, I don't know, 10 years?  And Romney has been pretty much just running for president for the past six (and he's not doing the best job of it...)

37:00  Romney made sure he had the first and the last word in the second segment.  That is either good debating or poor referreeship from Jim Lehrer.

39:00  I find my interest flagging as we move on to entitlement programs.  I know what I would do if I was the president.  I call it the grand swap:  The government will take care of healthcare, but you have to take responsibility for your retirement if you can.  I would swap my social security for healthcare costs in an instant.  It may just be that I am so far away from social security and medicare, and I am not counting on either being around when I am older, that I just don't care.

42:00  Still, I got to say that Obama is taking it to Romney here.  If you are 54 or 55, you may want to listen, because hey, guess what, you are going to be subject to whatever future voucher program Romney wants.  And he has AARP on his side.  It looks like Obama may have scored a crucial goal here, but let's wait and see what Romney says in rebuttal...

44:00  Lehrer asks point blank if he supports a voucher program...and Romney doesn't really answer.  He's resurrecting Bush's privatized social security plan, which I think maybe is something I would actually support.  If I could take my social security money and plow it into my 401k every week, I would definetly do it.  But its probably the end of social security as we know it.  And I don't know if that is a good thing.

48:00  Regulations now.  Jim Lehrer tries to get Romney under heel as Obama flashes a smile.  He's definetely a cooler customer than Romney, and while I know that is due to aloofness I still can't help but find it admirable.

52:00  So Romney would basically write better regulations.  Good luck with that.

52:00  Allright.  Healthcare.  Here we go.  Romney clearly doesn't like Obamacare (no surprise there).  Obama is in favor.  I think he is doing a better job at pointing out the good things about it, though Romney made some good points about why he doesn't like it.  I think its also pretty neat that Obama has taken the name of Obamacare up and embraced it.  It just kind of helps take some the venom out the turn.  Good move from the big man.  He turns Romney's argument for repeal against him arguing that Massachusetts is the model, though I guess Romeny's point is that the plan was best suited to that state, and it worked there, but maybe it doesn't work well everywhere.  And that is the plan he goes on to make quite well.  Though his claim that the Republicans had a counterplan (with bi-partisan support) is false.

60:00  Though I guess I would argue against Romney that healthcare, being a national issue, being too big for some poorer states to handle, is a matter for the national government IF you think giving everyone access to healthcare is a right.

63:00  I am just shaking my head at Romney now.  You can't outlaw pre-existing conditions without making sure that the pool is big enough, and that means everyone has to have insurance.  I think he also mis-characterizes the healthcare plan as a government takeover - it isn't.  It seems only that it is a way to make sure that everyone has insurance.  Doctors, hospitals, are all still private.  Except of course for the VA.

67:00 Obama levels a pretty good zinger at Romney.  Critizises him for not giving details, though I must say that Romney does have a pretty good grasp of various policy details.

70:00  Allright, the roll of Government now.  Let's have a little but of philosophy.  Obama invokes Lincoln, as he so often does (it is a dangerous and arrogant thing to do), but again he is making a clearer argument for what is trying to do (use the govt to create frameworks for opportunity) than Romney has so far.  But here is his rebuttal.

72:00  Romney's rebuttal is basically his interpretation of the constitution.  But it's a pragmatic argument, not a philosophical one.  And now as he goes into the next question he sort of says that government can improve education through subsidising charter schools, which is sort of counter to some of the other stuff he has already said.  One could also argue, if one talks of the pursuit of happiness, that using the government to increase opportunity can help those who are willing to work hard enough pursue happiness that they may not be otherwise able to pursue.  Read Outliers.  Successful people don't just work hard:  they work hard and make the most of their opportunities.

79:00  A low blow from Obama on the whole...ugh, I forget what it is.

80:00  Is Romney taking credit for Massachusetts schools being number one?

82:00  Jim Lehrer is going to have them solve grid lock in 3 minutes?  He should just let them move on to closing statements.  God knows they are going to go over the 3 minutes.  The officiating has been poor.  Very poor.

85:00  Closing statements.  Obama makes some pretty modest promises, which is kind of refreshing.  Mitt Romney promises hellfire if he isn't elected, and if he IS elected everything is going to be better.

89:00 Okay.  That is done.

The next debate is the vice presidential debate, and I won't be watching that one, because I don't care.

It is really nice to see the two families meet and talk for a bit afterwards.

Okay, so who do I give the debate to?  I'd have to give it to Obama.  I prefer the coolness, I think he had the better lines, and Romney said little that makes me, personally, want to vote for him.

Watching the post analysis, it looks like NBC is giving the debate to Mitt Romney.  If that doesn't say anything about where my loyalties obviously lie, then I don't know what else does.








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